If this election is as wide open as the polls suggest, then Fillon, with his solid block of conservative voters, could still be in the game. The French-German yield spread has stabilised at around 73 basis points, although this is the highest level since 2012, it is well below the 2011 high for the French - German spread which reached 130 basis points. High-yield European bond yields could also fall by up to 17 percent, while yields in the US Treasury market could shed up to 100 basis points.
"I voted for (Nicolas) Sarkozy, we got nothing".
Of course, like all elections in this day and age, it's a lot more complicated than that in reality.
What would be a euro positive and negative result? .
With four days until Sunday's first round of the presidential election, candidates blanketed the country ahead of the nail-biting election.
This was, until late January, seen as the most likely outcome.
Le Pen and Melenchon, who both pitch themselves as defenders of French workers, say they could take France out of the European Union and the euro currency.
France's tumultuous election campaign, marked by surprising outcomes in the two main party primaries, the relegation of early frontrunners for the presidency, and the rise of Macron's independent political movement, has become increasingly tense as the gap between candidates shrinks.
For the euro, the tension remains high, but at least Macron remains the leader and Melenchon is on the bottom.
The 48-year-old has not outright committed to Frexit, but has declared that rivals who promise to implement policies on security and protecting French workers which are forbidden by European Union law are lying to the French people.
They will battle in the first round of elections on Sunday, standing on vastly different platforms from far-right to far-left.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.0720, quite steadily.
Left-leaning Le Monde newspaper warned that Le Pen's claim that she would have prevented attacks that have claimed hundreds of lives was "absurd".
Societe Generale currency strategists said the risk of a run-off between the two anti-establishment candidates "is getting slightly less likely", noting Melenchon's poll ranking had failed to break above 20 percent despite the surge.
"The silence of the other candidates comes from shame, the shame of being a member or even having led a government which did nothing to lower the threat and even created the conditions for this scourge to develop", she told the rally, which was held under tight security.
Centrist Emmanuel Macron, who launched his own "En Marche" ("Forward" or "On the Move") political group, was still leading in the most recent Cevipof opinion poll published on Wednesday, with 23 percent support for the first round. We shall have to see if the options market is correct.